Speaking about "the abundance of video", there has been an underlying trend that makes the capacity of video storage that money can buy doubling every 1 to 2 years. Here is the chart I made to explain the Cheap Revolution in HDD. You can see the phenomenon similar to the Moore's Law is working in this sector as well. (I collected these resources from the web, thanks to the Google, so there might be some inaccuracy in details, but I believe that overall trend is well explained in this chart.)
If we can assume that this trend will continue, what will we get around 2010 or 2012? Well, here is my estimation. It seems a little overwhelming, but technology has always surpassed our perception this way.
- In year 2010, $500 can buy 10TB HDD.I believe this is just a beginning of reemergence of what we saw in Apple's iPod and the disturbance in music and record industry that followed. (Who could imagine that there comes a day when we can carry tens of thousands songs in a breast pocket!)
- In year 2012, this 10TB HDD is down to $250.
SONY released an epoch making PVR (Vaio X Video Station) in 2005. It has a 2.0TB HDD and 8 tuners which allows recording 8 simultaneous channels of television for three weeks. The price is about $2,200 (250,000 JPY). It totally changed the way I watch television. I think this type of DVR will be sold less than $1,000 and commoditized around 2012.
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